基于磷脂脂肪酸的热带西太平洋沉积物生源要素矿化过程探析

甄别生源要素参与的海洋沉积物矿化过程对探析生源要素的生物地球化学循环有重要的作用,矿化作用包括有氧呼吸、硝酸盐还原、铁锰异化还原及硫酸盐还原等多个过程,但如何区分这些过程一直是海洋沉积物矿化研究的难点。本研究采用气相色谱-质谱(GC-MS)联用对热带西太平洋沉积物中的磷脂脂肪酸(phospholipid fatty acid, PLFA)的组成进行了解析,并分析不同矿化过程中的主要PLFA种类及其影响因素,探究PLFA对沉积物矿化的指示作用。结果表明,PLFA总量在有氧呼吸过程中最高,而在硝酸盐还原过程中最低;且14:0、i14:0、i15:0和i19:0是有氧呼吸过程中微生物PLFA的主要组成,当其含量明显降低时可以指示沉积物矿化从有氧呼吸转变为硝酸盐还原;而10:0、17:0、20:0和22:0含量之和显著增加时则指示了硫酸盐还原过程的发生。在热带西太平洋沉积物中,总有机碳(TOC)和总有机氮(TON)含量以及间隙水NO₃-N含量是PLFA含量的重要影响因素,PLFA总量随着TOC和TON含量的减少而减少,并且TOC和TON的降解能够促进PLFA降解的发生,对PLFA组成有更直接的影响。     

极端生物降解沥青中8,14- 开环藿烷系列及其地球化学意义

借助色谱- 质谱（GC- MS）和色谱- 质谱- 质谱（GC- MS- MS）分析,对黔南坳陷凯里残余油藏凯棠和洛棉剖面上储层沥青中的烃类组成进行了系统分析,以判断其所遭受生物降解作用的程度,探寻在极端降解原油中是否还存在原生生物标志物,为这类原油的油源研究开拓新的途径和方法。结果表明：凯棠剖面上的储层沥青中尽管仍可检测到较为完整的C19- 30三环萜烷和C27- 35藿烷系列,但C19- 29脱甲基三环萜烷系列和C26- 34 25- 降藿烷系列丰富而完整,甾烷系列中C21- 22低分子量甾烷和重排甾烷优势明显,这一系列特征表明这些沥青遭受了剧烈生物降解作用的改造。但三芳甾类仍保存完好,依据原油生物降解程度的评判标准,判断其生物降解级别介于8~9级之间。洛棉剖面上的储层沥青中藿烷系列基本消失殆尽,三环萜烷系列及其脱甲基产物和25- 降藿烷系列的分布因极端生物降解作用而发生显著变异,某些化合物如C23T、C24T、C23NTE和C28- 29NH成为优势成员;甾烷系列中C21- 22低分子量甾烷占绝对优势,三芳甾类完全消失,据此判断该剖面上沥青的生物降解级别已达到10级或更严重。由于这两个剖面上的沥青遭受了极端生物降解作用的改造,常用的甾、萜类生物标志物完全失去了实用价值。但是,在所分析的这些沥青中都检测到三个系列的C27- 35 8,14- 开环藿烷系列,它们与塔里木盆地塔中地区海相端元油中存在的同类标志物的分布特征相似。正常海相端元油和极端生物降解沥青中同时检测到这三个系列的8,14- 开环藿烷,这一事实表明这类生物标志物在成因上具有原生性,而与生物降解作用无关。此外,在极端生物降解作用沥青中的完好保存,表明它们具有极强的抗生物降解能力,因而它们在此类原油的油源研究中可能具有潜在的实用价值。     

松辽盆地开鲁坳陷西部四方台组铀成矿条件及找矿方向

开鲁坳陷位于松辽盆地西南部,通过系统地分析开鲁坳陷西部铀源、构造、岩性-岩相、砂体氧化-还原、水文地质和铀矿化特征,笔者认为区内四方台组具备砂岩型铀矿成矿的基本地质条件。经统计蚀源区和地层本身砂体铀含量,数据显示该区具备丰富的内外双重铀源。深部还原流体可沿主干断层直接进入四方台组,这些断层也为地下水排泄提供通道。四方台组发育冲积扇、辫状河沉积体系,泥-砂-泥结构稳定,具备良好的地下水补-径-排和水中铀水文地质条件。文章从氧化带、砂体Th/U值变化规律、Fe²⁺/Fe³⁺值及有机碳含量分布特征等方面阐述其与铀成矿的关系。铀成矿主要受铀源、构造、岩性岩相及砂体氧化-还原等关键因素控制,各种成矿要素匹配良好,具备形成中型及以上砂岩型铀成矿潜力。     

黄骅坳陷断裂发育特征及其对新生古储型潜山成藏控制作用

“新生古储”型潜山是大港油田潜山勘探的重要领域并取得了勘探突破,多期断裂演化控制了新生古储潜山类型多样性及成藏条件多样性。通过系统分析坳陷控山断裂的静态、动态特征,恢复断裂发育对潜山山系形成的控制作用,针对古生界内幕碳酸盐岩与碎屑岩储层物性特征和成储机制、烃源岩特征及源-储配置关系等成藏要素系统分析,区划潜山类型,指出不同类型潜山勘探潜力层系及分布区。研究结果表明：(1)现今断裂具有多走向、多性质的特征,受控于多期次叠合演化的结果。其主要为四个期次：T₃时期近EW和NW(W)逆断,J₁₊₂继承发育;J₃+K₁初期挤压逆冲形成NNE(近SN)向逆断-转换断层;至K₁为负反转发育阶段,形成负反转断层;E时期受伸展作用控制,形成NE(E)向伸展断层。(2)“两期挤压成山-一期块断成山”成山过程,内幕储层经历“早成岩期—表生期—中成岩期—晚成岩期”多期成岩作用,奥陶系碳酸盐储层为中孔-中渗储层,碎屑岩储层为中-低孔隙、中-低渗储层。(3)在孔二段和沙三段优质烃源岩发育的条件下,源-储对...     

Observed Trends in Extreme Temperature over the Klang Valley,Malaysia

This study investigates the recent extreme temperature trends across 19 stations in the Klang Valley, Malaysia, over the period 2006-16. Fourteen extreme index trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, with Sen’s slope as a magnitude estimator. Generally, the annual daily mean temperature, daily mean maximum temperature, and daily mean minimum temperature in the Klang Valley increased significantly, by 0.07°C yr~(-1), 0.07°C yr~(-1)and 0.08°C yr~(-1),respectively. For the warm temperature indices, the results indicated a significant upward trend for the annual maximum of maximum temperature, by 0.09°C yr~(-1), and the annual maximum of minimum temperature, by 0.11°C yr~(-1). The results for the total number of warm days and warm nights showed significant increasing trends of 5.02 d yr~(-1)and 6.92 d yr~(-1),respectively. For the cold temperature indices, there were upward trends for the annual minimum of maximum temperature,by 0.09°C yr~(-1), and the annual minimum of minimum temperature, by 0.03°C yr~(-1), concurrent with the decreases in the total number cold days (TX10P), with-3.80 d yr~(-1), and cold nights (TN10P), with-4.33 d yr~(-1). The 34°C and 37°C summer days results showed significant upward trends of 4.10 d yr~(-1) and 0.25 d yr~(-1), respectively. Overall, these findings showed upward warming trends in the Klang Valley, with the minimum temperature rate increasing more than that of the maximum temperature, especially in urban areas.     

Impacts of large-scale teleconnections on climate variability over Southwest Asia

The atmospheric low frequency variability at a regional or global scale is represented by teleconnection. Using monthly dataset of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) for the period 1971–2016, the impacts of four large-scale teleconnection patterns on the climate variability over Southwest Asia are investigated. The large-scale features include the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) teleconnection patterns, as well as western tropical Indian Ocean (WTIO) sea surface temperature anomaly index. Results indicate that ENSO and EA are the first leading modes that explain variation of Southwest Asian precipitation, with positive (negative) anomalies during El Niño (La Niña) and the negative (positive) phase of EA. Variation of Southwest Asian near-surface temperature is most strongly related to WTIO index, with above-average (below-average) temperature during the positive (negative) phase of WTIO index, although the negative (positive) phase of NAO also favours the above-average (below-average) temperature. On the other hand, temperature (precipitation) over Southwest Asia shows the least response to ENSO (WTIO). ENSO and EA individually explain 13 percent annual variance of precipitation, while WTIO index explains 36 percent annual variance of near-surface temperature over Southwest Asia. Analysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim) data indicated establishments of negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies in the middle troposphere over Southwest Asia during El Niño (La Niña) or the negative (positive) phase of NAO, EA and WTIO. The response of precipitation variability over Southwest Asia to NAO is opposite to that expected from the geopotential height anomalies, but the correlation between precipitation and NAO is not statistically significant. Due to predictability of large-scale teleconnections, results of this study are encouraging for improvement of the state-of-the-art seasonal prediction of the climate over Southwest Asia.     

Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Track with Orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations

This paper preliminarily investigates the application of the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(CNOPs)–based ensemble forecast technique in MM5(Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model). The results show that the ensemble forecast members generated by the orthogonal CNOPs present large spreads but tend to be located on the two sides of real tropical cyclone(TC) tracks and have good agreements between ensemble spreads and ensemble-mean forecast errors for TC tracks. Subsequently, these members reflect more reasonable forecast uncertainties and enhance the orthogonal CNOPs–based ensemble-mean forecasts to obtain higher skill for TC tracks than the orthogonal SVs(singular vectors)–, BVs(bred vectors)– and RPs(random perturbations)–based ones. The results indicate that orthogonal CNOPs of smaller magnitudes should be adopted to construct the initial ensemble perturbations for short lead–time forecasts, but those of larger magnitudes should be used for longer lead–time forecasts due to the effects of nonlinearities. The performance of the orthogonal CNOPs–based ensemble-mean forecasts is case-dependent,which encourages evaluating statistically the forecast skill with more TC cases. Finally, the results show that the ensemble forecasts with only initial perturbations in this work do not increase the forecast skill of TC intensity, which may be related with both the coarse model horizontal resolution and the model error.     

东亚夏季风次季节变化研究进展

东亚夏季风次季节（10~90 d）变化是中国夏季持续性强降水、高温热浪等高影响天气事件的重要环流载体,处于天气预报上限和气候季节预测下限之间的预报过渡区。研究表明:东亚夏季风次季节变化是东亚夏季风的固有物理特征,它和季节进程之间的时间锁相关系是东亚夏季风次季节变化潜在可预报性的重要来源。东亚夏季风次季节变化与Madden-Julian振荡（MJO）存在显著差异,试图通过MJO来预测东亚夏季风次季节变化的不确定性较大。东亚夏季风次季节预测的另一重要来源是下垫面外强迫,包括欧亚大陆春季积雪、中国东部春季土壤湿度和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）事件。此外,去趋势偏-交叉相关分析统计方法能够分析东亚夏季风多因子和多时间尺度问题。目前,亟需解决的科学问题包括:东亚夏季风次季节模态的客观定量描述、造成东亚夏季风次季节模态年际变化的关键物理过程、不同外强迫因子对东亚夏季风次季节模态的共同影响。     

2018年冬季海洋天气评述

2018年冬季（2018年12月—2019年2月）大气环流特征为：北半球极涡呈单极型分布,主体位于北冰洋上空偏向亚欧大陆一侧。12月,亚洲中东部中高纬环流经向度较大,利于冷空气南下;2019年1—2月,环流经向度减小,中高纬地区以纬向环流为主,冷空气势力减弱,东部及南部海区海雾过程增多。我国近海出现了17次8级以上大风过程,其中冷空气大风过程有13次,冷空气和温带气旋共同影响的大风过程有2次,冷空气与热带气旋共同影响的大风过程有1次, 温带气旋大风过程有1次。我国近海浪高在2 m以上的海浪过程有14次,2 m以上大浪的天数共计64 d。冬季共有10次比较明显的海雾过程,多在北部湾附近海域,出雾时间集中于夜间至早晨。南北海域海面温度之差为21～28 ℃,海面温度整体呈下降趋势。西北太平洋和南海有3个热带气旋活动。     

2017年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋预报精度评定

以中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的最佳路径数据集为依据,对2017年西北太平洋和南海海域热带气旋定位精度及路径、强度和登陆点预报精度进行了评定。评定结果表明：2017年定位总平均误差为26.7 km,比2016年略偏大。无论是主观预报还是客观预报方法,近两年在72 h以内的路径预报整体水平并没有超越2015年。2017年,中央气象台除了对台风纳沙在台湾宜兰的24 h登陆点预报较差外,其余台风的24 h登陆点预报误差基本在65 km以下。采用不同机构的最佳路径或实时定位定强数据作为参考会对精度评定的结果产生较大影响。